The illusion of control bias is a cognitive bias that occurs when people overestimate their ability to control events or outcomes that are actually outside of their control. This can lead people to make irrational decisions and take unnecessary risks, because they believe that they have more control over the situation than they actually do.

For example, consider a person who plays the lottery every week, believing that their chances of winning are high because they have a "lucky" routine for selecting their numbers. This person may be exhibiting the illusion of control bias because they are overestimating their ability to influence the outcome of the lottery, which is actually determined by random chance.

The illusion of control bias can also play a role in decision-making situations where people are faced with complex or uncertain outcomes, such as investing in the stock market or trying to predict the success of a new product. In these situations, people may believe that they can control the outcome by gathering more information or making more detailed plans, even though the outcome is ultimately influenced by a wide range of factors that are beyond their control.

The illusion of control bias can be overcome by recognizing and acknowledging the limitations of one's control and by being mindful of the role of chance and randomness in life. It can also be helpful to seek out the advice of others and to consider a range of options before making a decision.

The concept of the illusion of control bias was first introduced by psychologists Ellen Langer and Jane Roth in the 1970s. They conducted a series of experiments that demonstrated how people's perceptions of their own control can influence their behavior and decision-making.

Since then, the illusion of control bias has been widely studied in the field of psychology and has been found to play a role in a variety of decision-making contexts. It has been the subject of numerous academic papers and has been discussed in popular books on psychology and behavioral economics.

The concept of the illusion of control bias has also gained significant attention outside of academia and has been applied in a variety of settings, including business, government, and everyday life. It is now widely recognized as a fundamental aspect of human cognition and is considered an important factor to consider when making decisions.